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Thyroid Carcinoma: Sensitivity and Specificity

Introduction: Note that some of the findings below are listed for nodules and others for actual cancer.

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Prevalence

Population / CalculatorPrevalence Comments / Study / Link
Thyroid nodules in the general population 67% by ultrasound

Arch Intern Med. 1994 Aug 22;154(16):1838-40. PMID: 8053752

Carcinoma in thyroid nodules 5% note: in this study there was a huge difference in malignancy risk based on nodules discovered incidentally on ultrasound (17%) versus ultrasound studies done for non-incidental reasons (3%)

J Ultrasound Med. 2005 May;24(5):629-34. PMID: 15840794

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The sensitivity and specificity of findings for Thyroid Carcinoma are listed below. See the left navigation bar to change the display.

Pre-Test Probability (Prevalence): %. Post-Test Probability (Predictive Value): %. Switch to display mode.
**Note that calculating probabilities from more than one finding is inherently inaccurate because findings are not independent. (For example, using two positive findings that share a common pathogenesis is likely to overestimate the true probability.)
Specific Findings
FindingResult SensitivitySpecificity
[ + ] Palpation + 0 - 31%100%
[ + ] FNA + 0 - 66%93%
Poorly Diagnostic Findings
FindingResult SensitivitySpecificity
[ + ] Solitary Nodule + 0 - 58%59%