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Mortality in Sepsis: Sensitivity and Specificity

Introduction: Sepsis designates a condition of systemic inflammatory response (SIRS) attributed to an infection. Depending on the severity (sepsis, severe sepsis, septic shock) it has varying degrees of mortality.

Definitions:

  • SIRS: Two or more of the following conditions: temperature >38.5°C or <35.0°C; heart rate of >90 beats/min; respiratory rate of >20 breaths/min or PaCO2 of <32 mm Hg; and WBC count of >12,000 cells/mL, <4000 cells/mL, or >10 percent immature (band) forms
  • Sepsis: SIRS + documented or presumed infection
  • Severe Sepsis: Sepsis and at least one of the following signs of organ hypoperfusion or organ dysfunction: areas of mottled skin; capillary refilling of 3 s; urinary output of <0.5 mL/kg for at least 1 h or renal replacement therapy; lactate >2 mmol/L; abrupt change in mental status or abnormal EEG findings; platelet count of <100,000 cells/mL or disseminated intravascular coagulation; acute lung injury/ARDS; and cardiac dysfunction (echocardiography)
  • Septic Shock: Severe sepsis and one of the following conditions: systemic mean BP of <60 mm Hg (<80 mm Hg if previous hypertension) after 20 to 30 mL/kg starch or 40 to 60 mL/kg saline solution, or PCWP between 12 and 20 mm Hg; OR need for dopamine of >5 mcg/kg/min, or norepinephrine or epinephrine of <0.25 mcg/kg/min to maintain mean BP at >60 mm Hg (80 mm Hg if previous hypertension)
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    Tags: Infection Tag this Diagnosis.

    Prevalence

    Population / CalculatorPrevalence Comments / Study / Link
    Sepsis 16% JAMA 1995 Jan 11;273(2):117-23. PMID 7799491
    Severe Sepsis 20% JAMA 1995 Jan 11;273(2):117-23. PMID 7799491
    Septic Shock 46% JAMA 1995 Jan 11;273(2):117-23. PMID 7799491
    More, Edit...

    The sensitivity and specificity of findings for Mortality in Sepsis are listed below. See the left navigation bar to change the display.

    Pre-Test Probability (Prevalence): %. Post-Test Probability (Predictive Value): %. Switch to display mode.
    **Note that calculating probabilities from more than one finding is inherently inaccurate because findings are not independent. (For example, using two positive findings that share a common pathogenesis is likely to overestimate the true probability.)
    Specific Findings
    FindingResult SensitivitySpecificity
    [ + ] Elevated Serum Lactate + 0 - 36%92%
    [ + ] Elevated Serum Lactate + 0 - 55%91%
    Poorly Diagnostic Findings
    FindingResult SensitivitySpecificity
    [ + ] Persistently Elevated Serum Lactate + 0 - 44.7%84.4%